Originally published on the CGS blog on April 20, 2016.
Visa-free travel throughout the world is one of the biggest perks of carrying a U.S. passport. Today, you can visit 154 countries without the paperwork, but that could change this summer. The European Union may slam the door on traveling freely, a decision with consequences beyond tourism.
On April 12, the European Commission met to consider altering visa requirements for U.S. citizens, 15 years after establishing the program that allows Americans to travel to EU countries for up to 90 days without a visa. The move is an attempt to pressure the U.S. government into adding Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania—all EU member states—to the list of countries entitled to visa-free travel in America. But the U.S. has held out on extending the same program to all EU members, citing security concerns. (Canada faces a similar threat over Romania and Bulgaria.)
While European national parliaments are unlikely to ratify an end to the program given the value of U.S. tourism, the issue could impact negotiations over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), an agreement three years in the making.
“There’s no doubt that if the EU were to slap a visa requirement on the U.S., it would be very, very bad news for the European tourism industry,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington D.C.-based think tank. “It would also quite frankly send the wrong political signal in the middle of TTIP negotiations.”
On the other hand, the U.S. State Department hasn’t expressed concern over the repeal of the visa waivers.
“We have maintained an open dialogue with EU officials—as well as officials from those member states that require visas for travel to the United States—on this matter,” said Julia Mason, a State Department representative. “It is premature to speculate on an imposition of visas on U.S. citizens.”
The visa waiver program, which permits business and leisure travel, has been beneficial on both sides of the Atlantic. Millions of Americans travel to EU countries every year, with U.S. tourism set to grow by 5.3 percent in the 2014-2019 period, according to the European Travel Commission. At the same time, U.S-based multinational corporations such as Coca-Cola and DuPont, which book billions of dollars in European revenue, also find it easier to conduct business thanks to the waiver. At least 10 percent of U.S. travel to Europe in 2014 was business related, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce International Trade Administration.
The European Commission has delayed the decision until July 12, but any move to drop the program will likely be tempered by vetoes from the European Parliament and/or individual European governments.
“Their tourism revenues, the business mobility, it’s not a joking matter for France, Spain, or the U.K.”, said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Center for International Political Economy. “Solidarity with the U.S. is perhaps stronger than solidarity with the EU.”
But unlike Kirkegaard, Lee-Makiyama doesn’t think the visa-waiver discussion will affect the TTIP agreement. “Negotiations tend to be rather compartmentalized affairs,” he said.
Although debates over controlling borders and combating terrorism have strained relations, the EU and U.S. still enjoy close diplomatic and economic relationships. Experts say the majority of EU countries won’t sacrifice those relationships in favor of the five members denied visa-free entry.
“It will come down to the solidarity between the EU member states,” said Lee-Makiyama. “They have been very firm in the wording, but not necessarily taking retaliatory measures when it comes down to it.”
But just in case, you may want to keep any eye out for any changes in visa requirements if you’re planning a trip to Europe this summer.
