Originally published on the CGS blog on June 30, 2014.
The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) made a huge move yesterday by declaring a caliphate spanning large areas over Iraq and Syria. ISIS has been capturing Iraqi cities one by one for several weeks now. They have successfully overrun military forces, and in some cases made forces voluntarily retreat.
(ISIS has recognized their caliphate as crossing international boundaries and ridding the countries of lasting colonial-era borders and has therefore changed its name to only “The Islamic State”.)
Abu Muhammad al-Adani, ISIS spokesperson, made this announcement on Sunday, which was also the beginning of Ramadan. In it al-Adani declared ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi the imam and caliph (religious and political successor of the Prophet Muhammad) of “Muslims everywhere.”
Last week, ISIS had been suspected of overtaking an oil refinery in Baiji, Iraq that would give them control of 1/3 of Iraq’s oil output. Because of this development, President Obama approved 300 troops to be sent to Iraq. These troops are part of what is called an “assessment” mission.
“These teams will assess the cohesiveness and readiness of Iraqi security forces, higher headquarters in Baghdad, and examine the most effective and efficient way to introduce follow-on advisors,” said Rear Admiral John Kirby, Pentagon spokesperson. With the declaration of a caliphate, it will be interesting to see how this American mission evolves. President Obama promised no combat forces, though Secretary of State John Kerry did say that unmanned drones would be a possibility. Russia has also reportedly started sending fighter jets to aid the Iraq military in pushing back ISIS.
The declaration of this caliphate has significant implications for multiple groups. Iraq’s military is still struggling to regain control of its cities, most recently the battle over Tikrit, Saddam Hussein’s hometown. The caliphate introduces a political order that traditionally devout Sunni Muslims are obligated to follow. There are bound to be clashes with fellow Sunni-extremist group al-Qaeda, who has previously cut all ties with ISIS. The appointment of al-Baghdadi as caliph threatens al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s claim to supremacy over the global jihadist movement.
This will cause conflict within the jihadist community as Sunni-extremists will be obligated now to either support ISIS or openly oppose it and risk the consequences, which would most likely include death. The Washington Post predicts that al-Zawahiri will “bow to the authority of the proclaimed new caliph,” effectively dismantling al-Qaeda.
Without effective military opposition, this jihad movement will only continue to grow, posing a huge threat to the international community. ISIS has already begun committing huge human rights violations, proven with satellite imagery by Human Rights Watch. They claim to have executed 1,700 Iraqi soldiers during the battle over Tikrit. While only around 150 bodies have been shown in the images released, if the number they provided is true, it will be the largest execution in Iraq since 2003.
Iraqi army spokesman Qassim Atta stated that this caliphate will be a global threat, and that “all countries, once they read the declaration, will change their attitudes because it orders everybody to be loyal to it.”
So what kind of response does this development require? The US can’t necessarily do much more, though the Iraqi government is asking for additional support. Until a more concrete threat to national security arises, President Obama has no precedent for further intervention. Russia has already supplied military aircrafts, but what else can be done?
Some have suggested that the UN Security Council intervene, which is an option and would hopefully pass without a veto. However, is it possible that this caliphate will dismantle itself? The declaration could potentially isolate ISIS allies within Iraq and lead to infighting, similar to Syrian rebel groups. That could cause an entirely new humanitarian crisis.
Outcomes are almost impossible to predict at this point; the most important thing is securing Iraqi land back in the hands of Iraqi military forces.
