Originally published on the CGS blog on February 27, 2014.
The history of the Ukraine is one of East versus West, sitting as it is on the border between westernized Europe and a more easterly focused Russia. The root of the nation’s name, край (krai), meaning edge, reflects this duality. The Ukrainian people, especially in recent decades, have struggled to find their place in this precarious position on the edge between the Russian and European spheres of influence.
In November 2013 President Yanukovich signed a deal with the Russian government rather than with the European Union. The decision tightened ties with East at the expense of closer relations with the West. It did not sit very well with many Ukrainians who viewed closer ties with the EU as key to strengthening the country’s economy and reducing the influence of Russia.
The resulting protests and violence and the collapse of the Russian-backed government this week have dealt a blow to Putin’s aspirations in regard to the Russian-Ukrainian relations and the goal of renewing Russia as a leading power in both Europe and Asia. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Russian government has struggled to maintain their influence over the former Soviet territories, particularly the Ukraine, with which there is a deep political and cultural history. Russia has always been wary of Western pressure seeping into their sphere of influence and now Putin’s government is faced with an unevenly divided Ukraine with the majority embracing the West.
Finally addressing the upheaval, Russian Prime Minister Medvedev discredited the interim government that took over after Yanukovich fled the country, calling it “the result of an armed mutiny” that threatens the legitimacy of every branch of power. This “armed mutiny” however, only represents the western regions of the nation. Those regions have garnered the most media attention, while the Eastern areas favor ties with Russia over those with the EU.
These pro-Russian areas in the East and along the Crimean peninsula are majority ethnic Russian and the protests there have been against the ousting of Yanukovich. A citizen from the eastern city of Kharkiv called the Western protests a “total attack on the rights of the Russian-speaking population [and] that laws are being adopted that threaten all those who do not accept fascism and Nazism.” This unrest is raising fears that the Ukraine could split apart along this east-west divide. Interim President Turchynov has even issued a warning about the danger of possible separatism movements.
The continued uncertainty could also lead to a default of the Ukraine’s international debt as collapse of the Russian deal drives down the value of the country’s currency and questions about regional access to the oil pipelines running through the country go unanswered.
With so many issues resting on a country grappling with the East and West, the future of the Ukraine itself remains very uncertain.
