Originally published on the CGS blog on September 5, 2014.
Eastern Ukraine has been at the forefront of the news for several months now, and if the events of the last few weeks are any indication, things will continue to escalate. The conflict was heated and popular enough when the downing of MH-17 brought the situation to the world’s doorstep. Furthermore, Russia’s involvement in Ukraine threatens to rehash old cold war mantras, to the dismay of the world’s observing players.
The PR teams of both the Russian and Ukrainian governments are doing their best to spin the violent events of the last few weeks to garner positive attention to their respective causes. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko actively search for a solution to this debacle. It’s plausible that, for the situation to de-escalate, an international organization will have to intervene diplomatically with the aid of a humanitarian watch group to help sort out the facts.
Russian forces recently made their way across the Ukrainian-Russian border, and it is difficult to comprehend their intentions based on the news that is circulating. Russian officials have said that the contingent was made up of humanitarian trucks supplying cities in the region that have lost electricity and access to running water. Ukrainian officials have said that these “humanitarian” convoys have been supplying the pro-Russian separatists with supplies such as weapons and ammunition.
Furthermore, the Ukrainian government detained several Russian paratroopers who had crossed the border. According to a major Russian news outlet, the paratroopers allegedly had no idea they crossed into the border and did not resist when detained. While the Russians will surely play this off as another humanitarian aid maneuver, Ukraine seems just in their suspicions, given the increased Russian military presence on the border (which includes multiple tank units and air defense systems, as well as a force of around 20,000 soldiers). With these events in mind, it is hard to imagine a ceasefire agreement between the two sides anytime soon.
The talks held between Putin and Poroshenko on August 26th were slated to discuss the Ukraine’s trade relationship with Russia. However, the talks instead focused on the prospects of de-escalation. Putin has said that it is ultimately up to Poroshenko to deal with the rebels that reside within his jurisdiction. These talks could yield important consequences for the world system in the near future. Putin’s land grab is undoubtedly a step in his plan to return Russia to the spotlight as a global leader by increasing his sphere of influence. In the meantime, Putin seems content to outfit the pro-Russian rebels in their quest to free themselves from Ukrainian sovereignty and switch allegiance.
It remains to be seen whether or not the international organizations or superpowers of the world will choose to get involved militarily. The United States and several European powers have imposed economic sanctions on Russia to little effect. The United Nations and NATO have yet to get directly involved– though NATO does plan to station troops in various eastern European military bases and is discussing impending actions at a summit in Wales. Unfortunately, Ukraine is not a member of NATO; the organization therefore has no immediate responsibility to deploy ground troops–though it has the capability to provide the Ukrainian side with vital resources.
Aiding the Ukrainians through NATO seems to be the most pragmatic path that the US can take at this juncture. Direct military action has the potential to set off Putin in what could possibly become another geopolitically-charged cold war-era proxy conflict. Additionally, Washington should be pushing its major European partners to aid the Ukrainian government, as it is once again in a transitional period after Poroshenko dissolved Parliament. Despite the flagrant intervention and disrespect of sovereignty, it would be ill-advised for the US to intervene unilaterally in Ukraine.
Washington must therefore proceed cautiously and diplomatically through the appropriate international organizations. The situation could benefit from the help of an organization such as Amnesty International or a similar third-party watchdog group to discern what is actually happening on the border. Through greater transparency and international support, the US can play a role in de-escalating this violent conflict through multilateral international cooperation. Should there be any hope of negotiation between Putin and Poroshenko, NATO should have a spot at the table.
