Originally published on the CGS blog on November 26, 2013.
A deal has been reached; Iran’s nuclear program will halt for the next 6 months.
That is the outcome of Sunday’s negotiations between Iran and six global powers this past week. During this hiatus, Iran will not enrich uranium past 20% which is the threshold that makes the process of accumulating fuel for a weapon much faster. It also will not produce any more centrifuges, its stockpiles of uranium shall not exceed 7,154 kg (its current stockpile), and any uranium enriched to 20% or more must be diluted or converted below 5%. These stipulations are intended to freeze any progress and provide oversight on their nuclear program, ensuring that any attempt to pursue a nuclear weapon would be promptly detected.
The relief offered in return for Iranian concessions are structured around four pillars: They are limited, targeted, temporary, and a reversible. The deal suspends certain sanctions on gold and precious metals, Iran’s auto industry, and Iran’s petrochemical industry, providing a potential $1.5 billion in revenue. It will also provide $400 million in governmental tuition assistance directed from restricted Iranian funds for recognized institutions in third party countries to assist students. The lifted sanctions are intended to help the moderate middle class who will help us in the long run by leveraging Iranians most receptive to abandoning or limiting the nuclear program, hopefully building a constituency in Iran for further U.S. rapprochement.
The majority of sanctions will remain in place, though as my colleague Matt Woodford explained here, this may not satisfy detractors. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decried anything less than stricter sanctions against Iran and he has allies in the U.S. Congress. Their eagerness for harsh measures should be tempered. The deal brokered in Geneva has the potential to resolve this decade long impasse diplomatically. While President Obama has not ruled out military action, targeted relief and verifiable reductions in enrichment capabilities are a far more preferable goal.
