Originally published on the CGS blog on March 7, 2014.
On his Tuesday visit to the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, US Secretary of State John Kerry sought to allay fears that the US was out-of-touch and powerless to influence the ongoing crisis by promising monetary aid to the Ukrainians, along with calls for a coordinated EU-US effort to isolate Russia through sanctions. In doing so, however, Kerry risks further mishandling of the situation by provoking unnecessary escalation.
There is no military solution to be found in Ukraine, that much is clear. The US and NATO will not risk open conflict with Russia, and a war with Ukraine would be immeasurably costly for Russia. Yet sanctions would also be mutually destructive. Seizure of the assets of Russia’s oligarchs would be economically devastating, and Russia would lose billions in its exports to the West. But Europe’s fragile recovery would likely also be undone by the loss of the one-third of its gas supplied by Russia, plunging the EU back into recession. John Kerry is not only threatening economic isolation for Russia, he’s threatening economic turmoil for the West as well. This is raising the stakes even higher, when what the peace process requires now is patience.
To move forward in Ukraine, realpolitik must prevail and all parties must engage in realistic and open negotiations rather than continue diplomatic threats and military posturing. As John Kerry demonstrated with his statements expressing surprise at Russia’s “19th century” behavior, idealistic rhetoric is unlikely to shame Putin into conceding. It is important to acknowledge that Russia has deep-set interests in Ukraine – Crimea plays host to the Black Sea Fleet, Ukraine is a major consumer of Russian exports, and President Putin is beholden to a nationalistic populace concerned for the millions of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine. No side stands to gain from escalation in tension – sanctions should be a last resort, not a first response. If the US wishes to display leadership in Ukraine, they should instead take the initiative in urging patience, calm, and diplomacy over confrontation. So before John Kerry begins to unnecessarily escalate an already serious standoff, perhaps the negotiating table should be considered as the first option.
