Originally published on the CGS blog on August 27, 2013.
“Make no mistake: President Obama believes there must be accountability for those who would use the world’s most heinous weapons against the world’s most vulnerable people. Nothing today is more serious, and nothing is receiving more serious scrutiny,” said Secretary of State John Kerry at an August 26th press conference referring to the gas attacks in Syria. Earlier Monday, Sec. Chuck Hagel used less fiery rhetoric, saying,”We are analyzing the intelligence. And we will get the facts. And if there is any action taken, it will be concert with the international community and within the framework of legal justification.” It is clear the administration wants to act and most media speculation suggests limited air strikes in concert with U.S. allies but nothing is certain yet.
What is certain? 3,600 were treated for neurotoxic symptoms and of those, 355 died. There are close to 2 million refugees in the neighboring countries of Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan. U.N. Security Council action is unlikely with Russia calling any intervention without UNSC approval a “grave violation of international law” and characterizing international concerns about the attacks as “hysteria“. Syria is densely populated; any military intervention is likely to cause collateral damage and civilian casualties.
The question of intervention is complex and at the end of the day, will likely be limited in extent, only marginally influential, and without a UN mandate. Supplying the rebels with arms will not turn the tide of war against a vastly better equipped military. Syrian government forces are embedded in population centers, precluding the use of air strikes and cruise missiles which would cause collateral damage and needless human suffering. Even the West’s favored means of punishing unruly autocrats – sanctions – often have the unintended consequence of starving the population it’s meant to protect. What can be done?
This past week the only intervention discussed has been with bombs and missiles but the intervention that needs the most attention is humanitarian intervention. The conflict has seen untold human suffering: 6.8 million in Syria in need of assistance, 4.25 internally displaced persons, 1.94 displaced in neighboring countries, and a steadily escalating conflict. In June the UN issued its largest ever appeal of $5 billion USD; there is a clear need for assistance. With all the talk of inflicting more casualties and suffering without clear benefits, there is an intervention that would be much more worthwhile.
