Originally published on the CGS blog on October 15, 2014.
Throughout history, numerous empires, nations, and city-states have suffered from various internal and external dilemmas that have led to their ultimate collapse. Such examples include the Roman Empire, the Soviet Union, and the former British and French empires, all once formidable in history, but ultimately succumbing to downfall. The Fund for Peace attributes “state fragility” to twelve indicators that include economic decline, erosion of legitimate authority, inability to provide reasonable resources, and more.
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa may lead to the possibility of failed states, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The nations hit hardest by the outbreak–Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea–are stretched to the limit in providing resources to just to sustain their own people, let alone to combat the disease. As money and resources are diverted, public services decline and populations that relied on government assistance are severely affected and left vulnerable. As the Ebola outbreak grows exponentially, panic has emerged in these countries as people have started to lose confidence and trust in their governments.
While Ebola has strained state resources, the economic impacts of the virus are another reason that the “failed state” idea is plausible. These countries were recovering economically from the onset of civil wars and coups that had hindered their potential growth in the past. Ebola has created another setback for them, and the effects may last years if the outbreak is not contained.
In the hardest hit areas, “the outbreak has paralyzed economic life…shops are closed, hotels vacant, flight cancelled, fields untended, investments on hold,” impeding if not retracting the states’ economic growth.
What’s unfortunate is that these countries had high growth forecasts predicted by the World Bank, but now have been downgraded. The Bank predicts that Guinea will grow 2.4%, down from a previously forecast 4.5%; Liberia 2.5%, down from 5.9%; and Sierra Leone 8%, down from 11.3%. Investments and projects such as the Mount Coffee hydroelectric plant, aimed at ameliorating the power supply of Liberia, have ceased to continue.
And there are grim reports that if the virus is not contained to these countries, there could be an “economic drain of as much as $32.6 billion by the end of 2015.”
All these numbers, facts, and statistics have a tremendous impact on the hope that these countries once had to escape the poverty that plagued them before the arrival of Ebola.
With resources stretched to the limit and economic growth stagnant and retracting, the Ebola outbreak may lead to the possibility of the first failed states caused by disease in the modern era. We are already seeing health care workers in Liberia going on strike over pay raises, though the chances of this becoming widespread and continuing are slim. Yet this example paints a reality of the serious challenges these governments face as the virus persists.
Governance in these countries is critical in containing the spread of Ebola. As people have become fearful of the disease, there has been a decrease in confidence in their governments. Examples can be seen in victims of Ebola lying in the street for days or not enough hospitals to cope with the influx of patients.
Governments abroad must aid these nations to help combat the disease and prevent states from collapsing, or else we may be facing problems that cannot be controlled. The potential is real and situations are dire to the point that the head of WHO said,
I have never seen a health event threaten the very survival of societies and governments in already very poor countries.
One thing is for sure: if more help is not sent, the Ebola virus will dramatically affect the economic output of these countries, lead to potential state failure as resources get stretched and confidence erodes, and have a lasting impact on generations to come.
