Originally published on the CGS blog on February 10, 2016.
On Sunday, February 8th, North Korea launched a satellite into orbit. Though North Korea claims the launch was for scientific and “peaceful purposes,” many nations view it as a “front to test a ballistic missile,” particularly after reports the country may have performed a hydrogen bomb test last month. The UN Security Council was quick to “strongly condemn” the launch as a reminder that “a clear threat to international peace and security continues to exist, especially in the context of the nuclear test.”
In South Korea, tensions have become acutely high, with warning shots fired Monday morning after a North Korean patrol boat crossed the maritime border between North and South Korea. South Korea has also begun talks with the U.S. to put in place Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), a defense system which can intercept missiles while they are in flight.
While the UN Security Council, South Korea, and other concerned nations want to respond quickly, there is one thing–well, country–that could get in their way: China. Despite having “expressed regret over the launch,” China does not agree with the U.S. on how to move forward; and without the support of China, sanctions against North Korea will be much less effective. China has also been trying to dissuade South Korea from implementing the THAAD system, as it is worried the system will be used against its own missiles rather than North Korea’s.
Is China justified in its actions (or lack thereof)? Many would say no, as they are done out of self-interest: China fears that if North Korea were to collapse, it would be “faced with both a flood of refugees over the border into its north-east and the removal of a useful buffer between it and America’s ally in the south.” So instead of supporting sanctions, China has pushed for a dialogue.
Yet while this may be selfishly motivated, China may not be completely wrong. As Ted Postol argues, “the hysterical response that we’re seeing is totally inappropriate…the more we overreact, the more we play into their hands.” Postol, an MIT professor, has long asserted that the threat of North Korea is overstated:
The threat only exists if they have a nuclear warhead that is light enough and compact enough to actually be mounted on these missiles. And the test record from the nuclear tests strongly suggests that they’re having some kind of difficulty with their nuclear weapon development program.
Postol isn’t saying sanctions are the wrong course of action, but rather that inflating the myth of risk does nothing to create a solution. China isn’t saying sanctions are the right course of action, but, for its own reasons, is also trying to deflate the myth of the risk. So who is right? Is a selfless UN right to treat North Korea like a legitimate threat incapable of reason, or is a selfish China right to treat North Korea like an improbable threat open to compromise?
