Originally published on the CGS blog on April 27, 2009.
George Perkovich, the Vice President of Studies and the Director of the Non-proliferation Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, spoke on April 20, 2009 about the prospects of reducing global nuclear stocks to zero. He discussed the numerous issues that must be resolved in order to even begin a discussion on going to zero nukes, but focused on one central issue that needs to be the first step: Bilateral negotiations between the US and Russia and between the US and China.
It may come as no surprise that these countries are at the heart of the issue. The US and Russia have by far the largest nuclear stockpiles in the world and China, though they possess far fewer nukes, is the up and coming superpower that could eventually catch up with the other two. They each also have a large amount of influence over their allies, and the power to coerce them into action.
If the US, Russia, and China can all get on the same page, they will be able to deal with some of the more specific issues that are stalemating progress towards disarmament. The issues that Dr. Perkovich highlighted were the Iran issue (Russian influence), the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (getting China on board), and the issue of extended deterrence without nuclear weapons (US influence to strengthen Russia-Europe relations and China-East Asia relations).
As Dr. Perkovich describes it, the Road to Zero Nukes is an uphill battle, but one that is possible to win. Not only would zero nukes ensure a more peaceful global environment, the path to achieving it will bring the major powers together for a common goal, thus forming a relationship based on cooperation rather than opposition.
