Originally published on the CGS blog on April 3, 2014.
For years now the United States and countries around the world have mostly been watching and waiting, betting that we have time to head off the worst impacts of climate change. But according to a new report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the climate-related disruptions we have witnessed so far are just a precursor of devastation on a much larger scale.
Crop failures top the list of concerns described in the report. Storms, droughts, and other climate-related weather events are expected to cause major food shortages and widespread starvation in all parts of the world. As rich, fertile farmland dries up and alternative food sources dwindle, societies will struggle to sustain food supplies. In a New York Times article, Mark Oppenheimer, a Princeton University climate scientist who helped write the report, boiled it down to simple economics: “when supply falls below demand, somebody doesn’t have enough food.”
However, famines are just one of many threats that will emerge in the coming decades. Countries will face a cascade of destabilizing events, such as severe water shortages, heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, intense storms, rising sea levels, and other catastrophes on an unprecedented scale. Civil wars and conflicts between nations are also expected to increase as people compete for scarce natural resources.
These incidents are unlikely to unfold gradually or in isolation. Most countries are not equipped to handle the impacts and the aftermath of one deadly storm, let alone the combined effect of multiple disasters happening simultaneously. Typhoon Haiyan – which struck the Philippines on November 8, 2013 – was one of the most powerful and deadliest typhoons ever recorded. More than 6,000 people were killed and four million people lost their homes. Under the scenarios put forth in the report, storms like Haiyan will increase in frequency and intensity and occur in conjunction with other climate-related disasters. That will put the lives and livelihoods of millions of people at risk and require costly outlays for emergency aid and rebuilding efforts.
Investing in adaptation is one important way to help stem the tide of the cumulative effect these events. However, as the report points out, there are limits to adaptation. We cannot simply move forward with an “emit and adapt” strategy. As the report shows, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and temperatures increase by 4˚C, the impacts may exceed our capacity to adapt. Costs will surpass available funds. There simply isn’t enough money to go around. Therefore, reducing greenhouse gas emissions must remain a top priority.
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will meet for the 20th time this December in Lima, Peru. The gathering will mark twenty years of unsuccessful efforts to get all nations to sign and ratify a global climate agreement – delays that amount to repeatedly rolling the dice on climate change. The risks and consequences of inaction are now abundantly clear. There is an urgent need for nations to act collectively, and act now. The good news is that if every country commits to emissions reductions and boosts adaptation efforts, there is a good chance we can limit warming to 2˚C, protect people from the worst impacts of climate change, and ensure we have a habitable planet.
