Originally published on the CGS blog on March 31, 2016.
Over the past few weeks, the European Union (EU) has been itching to sign a deal with Turkey in order to move towards resolving Europe’s refugee crisis. Turkey has recently agreed to a deal, promising to take any refugees who arrive in Greece starting on March 20th, 2016. The deal was made with the hope that the Aegean Sea smuggling route into Europe will close as refugees are being relocated to Turkey.
The European Union promised Turkey funding, an estimated €3 billion, as well as visa-free travel into Europe in return for claiming the influx of refugees.
While the EU is thrilled to slow down the amount of illegal migration occurring at its borders, human rights organizations are rejecting the deal. Amnesty International referred to it as a “historic blow to human rights,” claiming the European Union is determined to turn its back on the growing global refugee crisis. While Greece has been instructed to individually assess each refugee crossing from Turkey into Greece, Amnesty fears that Greece lacks the capacity to do so and instead will send massive numbers of refugees to Turkey.
Medical charities such as Doctors Without Borders join Amnesty International and the UN refugee agency in criticizing the deal on ethical grounds. Doctors Without Borders has withdrawn some assistance, stating they “will not allow assistance to be instrumentalized for a mass expulsion operation and refuse to be a part of the system which has no regard for humanitarian protection needs of asylum seekers and migrants.”
These organizations are skeptical of the safety of the 2.7 million Syrian refugees now stuck on Turkish soil. Turkey has previously broken international law by sending refugees back to Syria; with an increasing number of refugees soon to be pouring in from Europe, there is concern for their security within the country. Turkey fails to provide the political will and capacity necessary to protect the human rights of refugees. Most refugees will be left in poverty, as access to employment is restricted to illegal work, which is far below the minimum wage. Without the ability to seek employment, the refugees will become a permanent burden on Turkey for securing all basic needs, such as shelter, food and water. This dependency may only prolong the crisis for years to come.
The deal is intended to reduce the incentive for Syrians to cross the Aegean Sea into Greece, encouraging the refugees to instead stay in Turkish refugee camps. Under the deal, the European Union has agreed to resettle one Syrian refugee for every Syrian sent back.
However, it is unlikely that this deal will cut off all migration into Europe. In 2016 alone, nearly half a million refugees have arrived at the EU’s southern border. At least 3,000 refugees have died in the Aegean Sea while attempting to reach Europe. As the route through the Aegean Sea closes, even more dangerous routes will open, potentially between Turkey and Bulgaria, Morocco and Spain, or Libya and Italy. This past weekend a large group of refugees attempted to reach Europe through the Strait of Sicily. The routes across the Mediterranean Sea are extremely risky and may claim ever more lives. Refugees are desperate for a better life, and the closure of one route will almost certainly lead to the opening of another.
Over the next several months, the effects of the EU’s deal with Turkey will become clear. Until then, human rights groups will be monitoring the consequences of new migration routes into Europe, as well as the efficiency of Greece’s process of evaluating each refugee and Turkey’s capacity to accept refugee flows. As the deal pushes the crisis away from Europe, it is possible that it will only make the refugee situation even more dire than before.
