Originally published on the CGS blog on February 17, 2016.
While the Netflix series Narcos makes for good entertainment, the war on drugs is still all too real in Colombia. The country overtook Peru as the largest producer of cocaine in 2014, despite the Colombian and U.S. governments’ attempts to thwart production.
Since 1999, the U.S. has quietly carried out “Plan Colombia,” a bi-partisan effort to end the narcotics trade and build state capacity in South America’s oldest democracy. Yet the results of the nearly $10 billion aid package—the largest in US-Latin America relations history—have been mixed. Colombia is simultaneously nearing peace agreements and growing more coca crops.
On Thursday, February 4th, President Obama announced that the 15-year-old-plan will become “Peace Colombia,” in name and in U.S. spending. The Administration wants to increase aid from $300 million in 2015 to more than $450 million to support peace agreements between rebel groups and the Colombian government.
When Plan Colombia was signed, the country was teetering on the brink of collapse. Violent attacks from leftists guerilla groups such as the FARC and ELN, right-wing paramilitary groups of the AUC, and powerful drug cartels had all converged, destabilizing civil society. Now, both guerilla groups have been weakened and are engaging in peace talks with the government, thanks to the U.S.-backed military offensive.
Obama, however, doesn’t want to end efforts to halt cocaine trafficking. To meet both goals, Congress will need to approve the revised plans with updated priorities, including:
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Improving security and counternarcotics efforts while reintegrating the FARC into society.
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Strengthening the rule of law and growing rural economies by expanding state presence and institutions, particularly in former conflict zones.
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Promoting justice and providing essential services to conflict victims.
Several programs that support the new priorities are already part of Plan Colombia and can continue during peace time, says U.S. ambassador to Colombia Kevin Whitaker. “Our plan is to broaden these activities in the entire post-conflict process,” Whitaker told the local Bogota press.
Given that bilateral relations have strengthened over the past 100 years, Colombia generally views U.S. policies in a positive light. In a 2015 survey, Obama earned a 78% approval rating among Colombians. Despite this, the new plan will be a tough sell in Colombia because more than 90% of the population opposes amnesty for FARC combatants, a key element of the agreement.
As Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos noted in a forum co-sponsored by the U.S. Peace Institute, there is no perfect solution. Colombians will be asked to weigh the cost of re-integrating the FARC into society versus several more decades of guerilla war.
The FARC has promised not only to demilitarize but to abandon drug trafficking, which could result in a power vacuum among competing drug cartels. To combat this, “Peace Colombia” will likely take a new approach that extends beyond law enforcement. Public health campaigns geared toward reducing cocaine use along with regional or multilateral cooperation will be essential in reducing drug-related violence and reclaiming cartel-dominated territories.
Meanwhile, the international community could quietly broker an agreement that leads to peace with the ELN, Colombia’s second largest left-wing guerilla group. With new conservative leadership in Venezuela’s national assembly, the ELN is less likely to demand peace talks be hosted there. Removing this obstacle will help bring the group into the fold.
Finally, the Colombian government has agreed to a transitional justice system, which will require the international community’s help to provide justice and reparation to millions of victims. Yet this will be a necessary part of achieving and maintaining peace as the country rebuilds its civil society.
