Originally published on the CGS blog on May 16, 2016.
Barring a contested convention, Donald Trump will likely be named the Republican presidential nominee. And while his polarizing stances on immigration, trade agreements, and economic recovery get the most press, there is one issue that should raise alarm across party lines: nuclear proliferation. According to Trump, it’s “going to happen anyway.”
Surprisingly, the presidential candidate sees no reason for the United States to stop nuclear proliferation. In fact, he told the New York Times, “If Japan had that nuclear threat, I’m not sure that would be a bad thing for us.” Nor would he dissuade South Korea and Saudi Arabia from obtaining nuclear weapons, too.
Japan and South Korea, in particular, rely on U.S. military support to maintain peace and stability in the region. Yet Trump has suggested withdrawing troops in favor of allowing nuclear armament, a move that would greatly impact foreign policy.
“If the U.S. allies defend themselves as Trump has said, the alliance will be broken, and it will lead to a nuclear domino situation in Asia,” Moon Keun-sik, an analyst with the Korea Defense and Security Forum in Seoul told Voice of America.
Our allies wouldn’t be the only ones scrambling to go nuclear under Trump’s policy, either. North Korean Diplomat Ri Jong Ryul shot back in a CNN interview saying, “The US tells us to give up our nuclear program, is preparing a nuclear attack against us, and on the other hand would tell its allies to have nuclear weapons. Isn’t that a double standard?”
Today, the biggest regional security threats come from China and North Korea. China, one of the five recognized nuclear states under the 1970 international Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has grown increasingly aggressive in its claim to territory in the South China Sea. (The United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and France are the four other authorized nuclear states.) And although North Korea signed the NPT in 1985 as a non-nuclear weapon state, it withdrew in 2003 and continues to develop a weapons program.
Under the current treaty, China and Russia have agreed to impose sanctions on North Korea for violating restrictions on its nuclear program and ballistic missiles programs. Arming Japan and South Korea would undermine these sanctions, and shake up their tenuous relations with North Korea. It would also be a major step backward in the international efforts to stop nuclear proliferation.
Nuclear non-proliferation may not be at the top of the average American’s concerns when he or she heads to the polls, but the United States—and the world—needs a president that takes a responsible stance on the issue. If elected, Trump will need to seriously reconsider his stance in order to prevent a nuclear crisis.
