Originally published on the CGS blog on May 19, 2014.
The midterm elections and the 2016 presidential election are going to have profound effects on how America responds to the threat of climate change. GOP candidates in many senate races deny climate change is happening or that humans have any impact on the issue.
Likley GOP presidential contenders like Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Santorum (R-PA) believe climate change is a hoax created by progressives. Other GOP leaders deny the certainty of the scientific community on climate change or are strongly opposed to restricting the fossil fuel industry.
I don’t think it’s outlandish to predict that if Republicans control both the House and Senate, little to no new government policies will be adopted to reduce man’s effect on global warming.
Many have predicted that Republicans will make significant gains in the number of seats they hold in Congress this year. For that reason, it is important that supporters of addressing climate change find Republicans that are willing to join their cause, or at least acknowledge their valid concerns. Some Republicans that have already shown a willingness to address climate change include Gov. Schwarzenegger (R-CA), former Gov. Huntsman (R-UT), Senator Snow (R-ME), Senator Collins (R-ME), Rep. Smith (R-NJ), and Gov. Pawlenty (R-MN). Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), a very likely candidate for President in 2016, has also stated he defers his judgment on the matter to the experts. Though beyond that, Christie has avoided the topic.
There are recent developments, however, that I think are particularly capable of convincing Republicans to address climate change through laws and policy. First is the report by the Center for Naval Analyses’ military advisory board. This board of retired military leaders labeled climate change an issue of national security. Bipartisan support in Congress is much more likely in cases of national security.
The second is a report by Standard & Poor’s rating service that claims sovereign credit ratings could be negatively affected by rising sea levels and severe weather storms. The report says that poorer countries will be affected more than wealthier countries because they cannot fully absorb the cost of the resulting damage. Though that means that the report may not directly concern the American economy, it does start to tie in the economic costs of failing to address climate change.
These reports begin to speak the opposition’s language, but the arguments need continue.
It’s also important that the GOP candidates that put a large stake of their political identity in opposing the “green movement” do not find their way to Washington, DC. Though most of the more moderate GOP candidates seem to have the upper hand against their Tea Party opponents in the primaries, Washington is still likely to have a few more ultra conservatives in town in 2015 and plenty of Congress members that don’t see the logic to addressing climate change.
Barrack Obama declared the debate on climate change to be over in his second State of the Union address, but clearly the battle to convince everyone of the facts still wages on.
