Originally published on the CGS blog on October 15, 2013.
Syria, what? After weeks of vigorous debate on The Hill and internationally on whether to intervene in Syria following the sarin attacks on August 21st, the joint Syrian-Russian gambit is paying off. Saber-rattling in the White House seems to have rattled President Putin’s mettle; He reached out to Bashar al-Assad and arranged a deal to dismantle and destroy the government’s chemical weapon stockpiles. It was hailed internationally as a victory, but removing a tool from Assad’s repertoire does nothing to resolve the conflict. If all the weapons are abolished, Assad will have diminished capacity to cause mass casualties, but will continue to bitterly fight the opposition and cling to power–leaving 2 million refugees displaced, hungry, and disenfranchised.
Russia was loath to act on Syria for the past two years of the conflict, going as far as to veto UN Security Coucil votes to condemn the conflict. There are a few possible reasons Russia has forestalled any actions in the UNSC and propped up the regime:
- To thumb their nose at the US. The US has been hesitant to step up and do anything about Syria, but has been an outspoken critic of Assad. Putin will take any chance he can to antagonize the US because it is popular with his constituents and puts Russia on equal footing.
- Russia has a broiling insurgency of its own called the North Caucuses. Though it is kept under control by the undemocratically appointed strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, Russians still eye the Caucuses with suspicion, fearing secessionist sentiment and terrorism. Putin is afraid of blowback in the area if Assad falls, despite Western analysts’ assertions that he will suffer blowback regardless of the outcome in Syria.
- Lastly, Russia is comfortable with the status quo and the enemy they know. Putin has no strong attachment to Assad’s regime, but any potential change could be detrimental to Russian interests in Syria and the Middle East at large. They especially fear a radical Sunni Muslim regime taking power.
Russian interests in Syria are complex and not easily discernible. What can be gleaned from recent events is Russia does not want another American foray in their backyard. Maybe the hawkish rhetoric from the Obama administration did more good than more subdued calls for peace…
