Facing a Nuclear Iran

The Center for National Policy recently hosted a panel discussion on the future of Iran's nuclear program and U.S. options in face of a nuclear armed Iran.  Iran's nuclear energy program was originally developed through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).  Their program has expanded over the years, and eventually resulted in suspicions about Iran's plans for developing nuclear weapons.  Many years and IAEA Board of Governors meetings later, sanctions have been imposed on Iran and many other international actions have been taken in response to the country's enrichment activities.  Panelists at the discussion indicated that Iran has not yet decided if it will pursue nuclear weapons, but the past two U.S. administrations have stated that a nuclear Iran is not an option.

According to Alireza Nader, a Senior International Policy Analyst with the RAND Cooperation, the Iranian regime is very weak.  There is domestic turmoil within the country, with conflicts arising between the Supreme Leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Presidential elections will be taking place in 2013 and the last elections were viewed as fraudulent by the Iranian people.  Internationally, Iran is facing new sanctions and oil embargoes from the European Union.  These new penalties, along with existing U.S. sanctions, are meant to persuade Iran to negotiate.

Matthew Kroenig, from the Council on Foreign Relations, feels that there are only three options in front of the United States.  One option is to pursue diplomatic negotiations which, in Kroenig's opinion, are not likely to be successful.  The second option, and for obvious reasons not an ideal solution, is for the U.S. to accept a nuclear Iran.  Iran developing nuclear weapons could result in a greater increase in nuclear proliferation around the world and global instability.  According to Kroenig, if Iran does indeed develop a weapons program, the final option is U.S. military engagement.  The major issue with this approach is the unintended consequences it will have.  A military attack might inspire a nationalistic movement among the Iranian people.  A war would not be limited to just Iran and a global conflict could ensue.  There is also question as to whether or not Iran has claimed all of their nuclear facilities, or if there are more that the country is concealing.

I personally feel that a global solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions can be found and I do not believe that all hope for a diplomatic solution is lost.  Iran's nuclear program is an international issue and can be dealt with through international organizations and specialized United Nations agencies, such as the IAEA.  Continued pressure should be placed upon the IAEA Board of Governors and the U.N. Security Council to negotiate a solution that will deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons.  It is clear that whatever action the United States must take, it should be with the backing of the international community.

Currently, IAEA inspectors are in Iran and will be investigating Iran's nuclear program further. Their reports will have a great impact on what steps will be taken next.