Originally published on the CGS blog on April 11, 2012.
What began as a day of potential peace for the Syrian people quickly turned into continual despair. Both the Syrian government and anti-government demonstrators agreed to a peace plan, drafted by international envoy Kofi Annan and endorsed by the United Nations, which called for a ceasefire by tomorrow. In order for this plan to be effective, the Syrian government initially agreed to begin withdrawing its troops from Syrian cities, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad demanded written guarantees that the demonstrators would disarm themselves before troops were removed from the city. Not only must demonstrators be forced to lay down their weapons, but the Syrian government also demanded that foreign states promise to cease all funding to the anti-government demonstrators. The Free Syrian Army (FSA), the primary anti-government resistance force, denied these unacceptable terms, which the government has used as an excuse to not withdraw their troops. On April 10th, when the ceasefire should’ve begun to take effect, Syrian activists report heavy artillery has not stopped and that at least 23 people have died. For now, the strongest possibility for peace is failing to resolve the Syrian conflict.
Assad’s reluctance to withdraw troops from Syrian cities implies a dangerous reluctance to negotiate. These new demands, which were denied by the FSA, serve as a way for Assad to support the claim that he’s defending his nation from “terrorists” and gives him an excuse to prolong the effects of the peace plan. Foreign representatives such as Bernardo Valero, spokesman for the French foreign ministry; William Hague, the British foreign secretary; and Jay Carney, the spokesman for the White House believe the Syrian government is only using these new demands as a cover in order to continue violence, and also advocate considering future plans if Damascus fails to meet its commitment. Syrian allies, such as Russia and China, believe that Syria will adhere to their commitment to the peace plan, but also agree the government must take a more direct role to implement the peace plan. The Syrian government stated that it’s begun to withdraw its troops from cities and towns, but Annan says that those troops are instead being relocated to new areas of conflict. The procrastination of implementing the peace plan will increase the total death toll of Syrian civilians and military alike, as well as create more difficulties for humanitarian aid to assist victims of the conflict.
Even though the Syrian government has prolonged implementing the peace plan, Annan still has faith that the plan will work by the agreement’s deadline. Today, Annan travelled to Iran to speak with Ali Akbar Salehi, the Iranian foreign minister, with hopes that Iran will help advocate the importance of implementing the peace plan. Iran is one of Syria’s most important regional allies and if Annan can convince the foreign minister to support the peace plan, then it may convince Syria to begin implementing the peace plan as soon as possible. So far, Annan has received assurances that the deadline will be honored and Salehi has stated Iran’s support for Annan’s plan. Annan and Salehi also state that interference from other countries would be disastrous to peacemaking efforts within Syria.
Unfortunately, we won’t know if Assad will honor these commitments until tomorrow. The peace plan is the greatest opportunity to end the Syrian conflict and must be implemented as soon as possible. Any further procrastination by the Syrian government will indicate unwillingness to negotiate. However, diplomacy is the best solution to end the conflict and must be attempted in all aspects before any further action is considered. Basma Kodmani, spokesman for the Syrian National Council, has stated that if Assad does not honor his commitment to the peace plan, then the U.N. Security Council must set an ultimatum for the Syrian government to implement the peace plan with the will to enforce by power. This would be an unfortunate circumstance, but Assad and the Syrian government need to realize the importance of ending the conflict as soon as possible before more drastic measures are taken by the international community. Hopefully we will see an improvement when the agreement deadline expires tomorrow, but for now, time is running out and thousands of lives are at stake.
