The greatest problems facing civilization are (1) global warming and (2) threat of nuclear destruction. For nearly eighty years, the World Federalist Movement has promoted the concept of a democratic federal world government to eliminate wars and control nuclear weapons. Today we realize this also is our best chance of addressing global warming. Under such a world government, individual countries would lose a degree of national sovereignty. For Americans, loss of national sovereignty has been the greatest barrier to the creation of a federal world government. In the choice between world government and national sovereignty, the vast majority of Americans chose national sovereignty.
In 21st century, the role of national sovereignty in this choice will diminish significantly. China will become the dominate world power with more relative military power than the United States and the Soviet Union at their combined peak.
The arithmetic is simple and it is on China’s side. China has more than four times the population of the United States. When China’s per capita income reaches half that of the U.S., their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be double the U.S. (½ x 4 = 2) When China’s per capita income reaches parity with the U.S., their economy will be four times the size of the U.S. economy. Therefore, their defense department can be four times the size of the U.S. Defense Department and Chinese autocracy will rule the world.
China will pass the U.S. in nominal GDP before the middle of this century. according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). According to the IMF, China has already passed the U.S. in GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), but not yet at nominal GDP.
China’s economy has grown at the rate of 9.5% over the past 30 years. This incredible success has brought nearly one million people out of poverty. Chinese leaders see this validation of their autocratic leadership. While China’s growth rate is slowing, they will likely continue growing at higher rates than developed countries due to their lower base of per capita income.
World domination by China should motivate nations to join together and find a better solution to world government. Reforming the United Nations, with its one-nation, one-vote, will not solve this problem. The United States and other OECD countries should initiate and fund a study to find a solution to global governance.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect the official policy of Citizens for Global Solutions.