The 18-Month Fallacy

By Charles J. Brown

Eighteen months to go.  That’s the mantra you hear these days:  Only 18 more months before the end of arguably the worst presidency in American history.  On January 20, 2009, our long nightmare will be over, and a new era of sanity and sweetness, measured action and multilateral diplomacy, will commence.

I don’t think so. 

First of all, we can’t wait 18 months:  President Bush still has plenty of time to make things even worse.  With two wars already going badly, some within the administration now want to start a third with Iran. And every day that Alberto Gonzales remains Attorney General and Guantanamo remains open, the administration is finding new ways to diminish our freedoms at home and damage our reputation abroad.  We need to push Congress – and the president – to change the direction of the country now, before it’s too late.

But there is an even bigger problem with the 18-months-to-go fallacy: It assumes that someone better will win.  Given what has happened so far, I’m not sure that’s even remotely a sure thing.

Take for example, the so-called debates. The process reminds me of the old Saturday Night Live skit where the Gerald Ford/Jimmy Carter debates were recast as a beauty pageant – including a swimsuit competition.  Now I can think of few things scarier than Jimmy Carter in a Speedo, but what we’ve seen this year hasn’t risen very far above such absurdities.

Take, for example, the Republican contest.  To date, candidates have competed for the title of torturer-in-chief; announced that they don’t believe in evolution; supported a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Iran; and suggested that we should deport well, pretty much everybody without a green card.  Such positions may play well with the extreme right, but they represent neither the opinions of most Americans nor the behavior of statesmen.

And for the record, Mr. Giuliani, trying to scare Americans is not leadership.  Once we had a president who said that the only thing we had to fear was fear itself.  Now we have a presidential candidate who thinks that the only thing he has to fear is that fear itself won’t be enough to get him elected.

The Democrats haven’t been much better.  Fighting over who was the first to oppose the war in Iraq is not exactly the same thing as vision.  And good haircuts, appearances on Leno and Oprah and self-deprecating YouTube commercials don’t tell us anything about what they stand for.

In fairness to the candidates, the media hasn’t helped.  The way networks play “gotcha” and parse every statement for hidden significance means that candidates reject spontaneity in favor of carefully scripted appearances.  A 24-hour news cycle that rejects thoughtful analysis in favor of the latest news on Paris Hilton’s incarceration hasn’t helped either. 

In this time of unprecedented crisis both at home and abroad, we need leaders who have the courage to listen to others, the capacity to both honor their convictions and acknowledge their mistakes and the wisdom to recognize that poll numbers shouldn’t drive policy.  We need a president who will recognize that global problems require global solutions, and who is willing to work with our friends and allies to do what is best not only for this country but also the world.

It’s about time we start demanding better of the candidates, the media and ourselves.  Ask the candidates how they intend to find solutions to the challenges we face.  Ask them how they will make decisions and address mistakes.  Reject those who pander to special interests or try to scare us into submission.  Only then will we ensure that real change actually does take place in another 18 months.

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