Nuclear Posture Review sticks to the middle ground

Today the Obama administration released the much-anticipated Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), coinciding with the anniversary of President Obama's progressive Prague speech last April. Splitting with Bush-era nuclear doctrine, the NPR renounces the development of new nuclear weapons and states that the "fundamental purpose" of nuclear weapons is deterring other states from deploying them. The NPR is the beginning of a six week focus on nuclear issues, as President Obama signs New START on Thursday, hosts a Nuclear Security Summit in April, and the UN holds the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in May.

Yet the NPR might be more of a status quo document than an expression of President Obama's Prague vision, as some advocates had hoped. Despite the its modest advances, there were early expectations that the language in the NPR would be bolder and suggest more concrete numbers for nuclear weapons reductions. The NPR's largely middle ground stance indicates some political signaling to Congress. The Obama administration's nuclear priority in Congress at the moment is to ratify the New START, which will require 67 votes in the Senate, including the votes of key Senate Republicans. More drastic changes to the NPR might have fueled conservative opposition to New START.

The review states that non-nuclear weapon states will not be subject to nuclear retaliation if they attack the U.S. with chemical or biological weapons. However, states in violation of the NPT fall outside this category, including Iran. This is designed to assure non-nuclear weapons states and provide support to the NPT, which will be discussed at length at the NPT Review Conference in May. The conference is an absolutely critical next step for non-proliferation and disarmament efforts, given that the last conference is widely regarded as a failure.

For nuclear weapons states or states in violation of the NPT, however, there are no such guarantees. President Obama made clear that these states - especially those disrespecting the obligations of the NPT - can expect that attacking the U.S. may come with serious (nuclear) consequences. 

The NPR also declared that any attacks on the U.S. would be countered with a "devastating" conventional military response. Clearly the U.S. has the most powerful conventional capabilities in the world. Projecting such strong military power should make the need for nuclear weapons obsolete, or at least allow deterrence to qualify as the "sole" purpose of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Although CGS is disappointed that the U.S. could not identify the purpose of nuclear weapons to be "solely" deterrence, we recognize that the NPR still represents noteworthy progress in U.S. policy.